A summary of 8 states courtesy of race42008.com:
Michigan:
Giuliani 34%
McCain 24%
Romney 10%
Gingrich 9%
Thompson 7%
Huckabee 2%
Brownback, Gilmore, Hagel, Hunter, Pataki 0%
Undecided 14%
Missouri:
McCain 31%
Giuliani 18%
Gingrich 14%
Brownback 5%
Hagel 3%
Romney 2%
Thompson 2%
Huckabee 1%
Gilmore, Hunter, Pataki 0%
Undecided 24%
Florida:
Giuliani 30%
Gingrich 16%
McCain 15%
Romney 2%
Hagel 2%
Brownback 1%
Huckabee 1%
Pataki 1%
Gilmore, Hunter, Thompson 0%
Undecided 32%
Pennsylvania:
Giuliani 35%
McCain 25%
Hagel 4%
Brownback 2%
Romney 1%
Gilmore 1%
Huckabee 1%
Hunter, Pataki, Thompson 0%
Undecided 21%
Illinois: Giuliani 33%
McCain 24%
Romney 12%
Gingrich 8%
Brownback 4%
Thompson 4%
Hagel 3%
Hunter 1%
Gilmore, Huckabee, Pataki 0%
Undecided 11%
New Mexico:
Giuliani 38%
McCain 20%
Gingrich 9%
Romney 7%
Hagel 6%
Brownback 4%
Pataki 1%
Gilmore, Huckabee, Hunter, Thompson 0%
Undecided 15%
California:
Giuliani 33%
Gingrich 19%
McCain 18%
Hagel 5%
Romney 3%
Hunter 1%
Brownback, Gilmore, Huckabee, Pataki, Thompson 0%
Undecided 22%
North Carolina:
Giuliani 34%
McCain 26%
Gingrich 11%
Huckabee 4%
Romney 2%
Hagel 2%
Gilmore 1%
Brownback, Hunter, Pataki, Thompson 0%
Undecided 19%
As you can see, Hagel is doing decently in 7 out of the 8 states listed, considering that he has not yet formally declared his candidacy. The state that he is not doing well in is Michigan. This means that we have to step it up a level. There are still a lot of undecided people out there--so lets show them why Senator Hagel is the right choice.
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Michigan is going to be for Hagel for several reasons: 1) McCain beat Bush in the 2000 presidential primary even though the GOP establishment was backing Bush; 2) Romney and his wife are natives of Michigan and his father was a former governor of Michigan; and 3) there is a large Italian American community in Michigan that will back Giuliani no matter what; 4) Right to Life is extremely strong in Michigan and will likely back someone who is identified with the Evangelicals. Nevertheless, I think Hagel has a chance at winning in Michigan and in other key states if the so-called front runners divide the pro-Iraq War votes amongst themselves while Hagel sweeps the anti-Iraq War votes. No doubt that Hagel is a dark horse candidate but then so was Lincoln.
Good analysis; however, I think the hard-core pro-lifers (like myself) will back Hagel. In the states where he is doing fairly well, he is only being beaten by Giuliani (hard-core pro-choice), McCain (flip-flopper on abortion), and Romney (also a flip-flopper). Gingritch is pro-life, but he has flip-flopped on whether or not he'll even run.
Check out my earlier post under the topic Michigan Issues.
I meant to say Michigan is going to be tough for Hagel although I still think he can pull off a victory. In fact, for political junkies 2008 is going to be one roller coaster of a ride where anything can happen because the race is so wide open.
That's what I thought you had meant to say - but I really think that the pro-life community will back Hagel. None of the other front runners are hard core pro life, and Michigan has the biggest Right to Life organization in the country. That is one of the most important things that Hagel will have to depend on to get the nomination.
If Hagel is going to run for President, he should know that the Michigan GOP is having their state convention in Grand Rapids at the DeVos Center the second weekend in February. Also, in September, the Michigan GOP will have their bi-annual Mackinac retreat.
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